# Mediation: External Position Channel vs Direct Demographic Effect

| Model | Dep Var | N | Countries | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1: Z → REER (no NFA) | log_reer_combined | 3,053 | 100 | 0.017 |
| B2: Z → REER (+ NFA) | log_reer_combined | 3,017 | 99 | 0.012 |
| B3: Z → REER (+ NFA + CA) | log_reer_combined | 2,895 | 99 | 0.009 |
| B4: Z → REER (+ NFA + trade) | log_reer_combined | 2,598 | 90 | -0.023 |
| B5: Z → REER (+ WAS) | log_reer_combined | 3,017 | 99 | 0.015 |

## Key Coefficients

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1: Z → REER (no NFA) | Z_1 | -1.2074 | 0.3695 | 0.0011 | *** |
| B1: Z → REER (no NFA) | Z_2 | 0.1574 | 0.0534 | 0.0032 | *** |
| B1: Z → REER (no NFA) | Z_3 | -0.0058 | 0.0021 | 0.0060 | *** |
| B2: Z → REER (+ NFA) | Z_1 | -1.2411 | 0.3730 | 0.0009 | *** |
| B2: Z → REER (+ NFA) | Z_2 | 0.1619 | 0.0539 | 0.0027 | *** |
| B2: Z → REER (+ NFA) | Z_3 | -0.0060 | 0.0021 | 0.0052 | *** |
| B2: Z → REER (+ NFA) | nfa_gdp_lag | 0.0348 | 0.0072 | 0.0000 | *** |
| B3: Z → REER (+ NFA + CA) | Z_1 | -1.3957 | 0.3875 | 0.0003 | *** |
| B3: Z → REER (+ NFA + CA) | Z_2 | 0.1857 | 0.0562 | 0.0010 | *** |
| B3: Z → REER (+ NFA + CA) | Z_3 | -0.0070 | 0.0022 | 0.0018 | *** |
| B3: Z → REER (+ NFA + CA) | nfa_gdp_lag | 0.0343 | 0.0073 | 0.0000 | *** |
| B3: Z → REER (+ NFA + CA) | ca_gdp | -0.0008 | 0.0003 | 0.0031 | *** |
| B4: Z → REER (+ NFA + trade) | Z_1 | -1.6238 | 0.4107 | 0.0001 | *** |
| B4: Z → REER (+ NFA + trade) | Z_2 | 0.2229 | 0.0593 | 0.0002 | *** |
| B4: Z → REER (+ NFA + trade) | Z_3 | -0.0086 | 0.0024 | 0.0003 | *** |
| B4: Z → REER (+ NFA + trade) | nfa_gdp_lag | 0.0386 | 0.0072 | 0.0000 | *** |
| B4: Z → REER (+ NFA + trade) | trade_openness | -0.0016 | 0.0001 | 0.0000 | *** |
| B5: Z → REER (+ WAS) | Z_1 | -0.5880 | 0.5381 | 0.2746 |  |
| B5: Z → REER (+ WAS) | Z_2 | 0.1067 | 0.0629 | 0.0898 | * |
| B5: Z → REER (+ WAS) | Z_3 | -0.0048 | 0.0022 | 0.0307 | ** |
| B5: Z → REER (+ WAS) | nfa_gdp_lag | 0.0344 | 0.0072 | 0.0000 | *** |
| B5: Z → REER (+ WAS) | working_age_share | -1.2362 | 0.7409 | 0.0953 | * |

*Sequential addition of external position controls*